Worried About Stocks? Why Long-Term Investing Is Crucial
July 15, 2022
We are living in a time of extreme uncertainty and the anxiety that comes along with it. Against the backdrop of war, humanitarian crisis, and economic hardship, it’s natural to wonder what effect these world events will have on our long-term investment performance. While these challenges certainly warrant our attention and deep concern, they don’t...
Are We Headed for a Recession?
July 7, 2022
We're just two years removed from the last US recession. Negative stock returns and aggressive US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes have many investors concerned we are headed for another big "R"—if we're not already there. But recessions are always identified with a lag. By the time one is called, the worst of its impact...
Understanding Charitable Trusts
July 6, 2022
When it comes to strategic tax planning and management, one of the best ways to mitigate future taxes or create tax savings to offset the current year's tax liability from investment sales or large income realization events such as a Roth conversion or business sale is through philanthropic and charitable giving. There are many charitable...
Have the Tech Giants Been DeFAANGed?
June 30, 2022
Investors expecting FAANG1 stocks to continue the extraordinary performance of recent years must be disappointed by their returns in 2022 (see Exhibit 1). All five of the stocks lagged the broad US market through May 31, with Facebook (now known as Meta) and Netflix suffering particularly sharp losses. The group collectively underperformed the Russell 3000 Index2 by nearly...
Is a Yield Curve Inversion Bad for Stock Returns?
June 24, 2022
Many investors see yield curve inversions—when short-term bond yields exceed long-term yields—as foreboding. Do they signal a stock market downturn? Data from the US and other major economies show yield curve inversions have not historically predicted equity market downturns. As markets incorporate news and events around the world, bond yields change, which causes yield curves...
Surprisingly Benign: How Stocks Respond to Hikes in Fed Funds Rate
June 17, 2022
On May 4, the US Federal Reserve increased the target federal funds rate1 by 50 basis points as part of what the central bank said will be a series of rate increases to combat soaring inflation in the US. Some investors may worry that rising interest rates will decrease equity valuations and therefore lead to relatively...
Four Ways to Improve the Probability of a Good Retirement
June 9, 2022
Around the world, individuals are being asked to take on greater responsibility for their own retirement. In the US, for example, a combination of limited Social Security funding and a reduction in the number of defined benefit (DB) employer plans—historically, the primary retirement savings vehicle for many—is causing investors to make decisions they have never...
Should You Chase Dividend Stocks to Combat Inflation and Rate Hikes?
June 3, 2022
Inflation in the US has surged to the highest level in nearly 40 years, reaching 7.9% in February 2022.1,2 This, coupled with the US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates, has alarmed many investors.3 Some are turning to dividend-paying stocks, hoping to receive more income protection and higher returns.4 Will it work? Before diving into the performance...
Do Stock Market Downturns Lead to Down Years?
May 27, 2022
Stock market downturns over a few days or months may lead investors to anticipate a down year. But a broad US market index had positive returns in 17 of the past 20 calendar years, despite some notable dips in many of those years. Even in 2020, when there were sharp market declines associated with the...
Meme Investing? Try Human Ingenuity Instead.
May 20, 2022
We’ve all been conditioned to see meme investors and Wall Street in opposition, but it seems to me that they have a lot in common. Both believe in picking stocks and think they can beat the market. In my mind, the important distinction is that Wall Street stands to make a lot of money off...